In this article we will discuss about:- 1. Introduction to Climate Change 2. Definition to Climate Change 3. India’s Initiatives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 4. Corporate Responses 5. Stern Review 6. Influences on Forests 7. Global Initiatives.
Introduction to Climate Change:
Climate actually means the average weather experienced in a region over a long period of time. Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands of years. The classical period is 3 decades, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind.
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Climate in a wider sense is the State, including a statistical description of the climate system. The climate on earth has undergone many changes in the past and this is entirely natural. However, the rate at which the climate has been changing over the past 50 years has led to a consensus amongst scientists that this recent change is likely to be as a result of man’s activities.
Earth’s average temperature has risen drastically over the past century and is projected to rise further over the next hundred years. Global average temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C in the past 100 years and global average precipitation has increased slightly. Small changes in the average temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in climate and weather.
Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by changes in weather and climate. Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts or intense rain, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves. The planet’s oceans and glaciers have also experienced some big changes – oceans are warming and becoming more acidic, ice caps are melting and sea levels are rising. As these and other changes become more pronounced in the coming decades, they will likely present challenges to our society and our environment.
Over the past century, human activities have released large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The majority of greenhouse gases come from burning fossil fuels to produce energy, although deforestation, industrial processes and some agricultural practices also emit gases into the atmosphere. The most important of the greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide (CO2), which has risen from a concentration of 275 parts per million (ppm) prior to 1850 to the current value of 390 ppm.
Levels of CO2 are expected to continue rising and current estimates predict a concentration of 525-950 ppm by the end of this century. The enhancement of the ‘greenhouse effect’ by rising concentrations of these greenhouse gases is largely responsible for the issue of global warming. However, rising temperatures are only one consequence of the enhanced greenhouse effect, with changes to weather patterns and many aspects of the climate such as rainfall and humidity predicted. Collectively, these are referred to as ‘climate change’.
Human societies have adapted to the relatively stable climate we have enjoyed since the last ice age which ended several thousand years ago. A warming climate will bring changes that can affect our water supplies, agriculture, power and transportation systems, the natural environment and even our own health and safety.
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Carbon dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for nearly a century, so Earth will continue to warm in the coming decades. The warmer it gets, the greater the risk for more severe changes to the climate and Earth’s system Although it’s difficult to predict the exact impacts of climate change, what’s clear is that the climate we are accustomed to is no longer a reliable guide for what to expect in the future.
Definition to Climate Change:
According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change in usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Climate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. In other words, climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among other effects, that occur over several decades or longer. IPCC prediction indicates that the increase in global temperature in the year 2100 will be minimum of 1.4°C and maximum of 5.8°C from that of existed during the year 1900.
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This will owe mainly to the fact that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will increase to the predicted level of 970 ppm during 2100. The phenomena by which the temperature increases due to increase in CO2 concentration is called greenhouse effect which was first described by Joseph Fourier in 1824.
In Indian scenario, the total GHGs production is 1,228 metric tons per year and out of which CO2 contribution is 64 per cent and of methane and N2O is 32 and 4 per cent respectively. India’s Initial National Communication-2004 (NATCOM 1) to UNFCC has consolidated some observed changes in Climate in India.
1. At national level, increase of 0.4° C has been observed in surface temperature over the past century. A warming trend has been observed along the west coast, in central India, the interior peninsula and the north-eastern India. However, cooling trends have been observed in north-west India and parts of south India.
2. A trend of increasing monsoon seasonal rainfall has been found along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and north-western India (+10 to +12 per cent of the normal over the last 100 years), while a trend of decreasing monsoon seasonal rainfall has been observed over eastern Madhya Pradesh, north-eastern India and some parts of Gujarat and Kerala (-6 to -8 per cent of the normal over the last 100 years).
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3. The records of coastal tide gauges in the Indian Ocean for more than 40 years showed a sea level rise between 1.06 to 1.75 mm per year.
India’s Initiatives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Climate Change:
A “National Action Plan on Climate Change” was released by Prime Minister of India on 30 June 2008, which was prepared by Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change. It proposed eight National Missions including National Mission for a Green India which is directly relevant to forestry sector.
In brief, Green India Mission is a major initiative of Government of India to green 6 million ha of degraded forests. It is one of the largest global efforts and part of initiative of Indian Government on response to climate change which is capable of capturing 1,435 million tonnes of CO2.
Green India Mission (GIM) puts the “greening” in the context of climate change adaptation and mitigation mainly meant to enhance ecosystem services like carbon sequestration and storage in forests and other ecosystems. Among three fold objectives of the GIM, one objective is to increase the Green House Gases (GHGs) removals by India’s forests to 6.35 per cent of India’s annual total GHG emissions by the year 2020 (an increase of 1.5 per cent over what it would be in the absence of the Mission).
This would require an increase in above and below ground biomass in 10 million ha of forests or ecosystems, resulting in increased carbon sequestration of 43 million tons CO2e annually. Out of nine sub-missions, which will be implemented under GIM, the following three sub-missions need special attention owing to their greater contributions.
Sub-Mission 1 Enhancing Climatic Resilience in Moderately Dense Forests in 2 m ha:
The key interventions are better protection, fire management (both prevention, detection and control), regulated grazing, invasive species eradication, management of insects and other pathogens, soil and moisture conservation (on ridge to valley basis).
Sub-Mission 2 Eco-Restoration of Open Forests in 4m ha:
Plantation of indigenous species and/or regeneration of root stock and indigenous grasses and shrubs will be priority agenda with focus on in-situ moisture conservation/rain water harvesting/run off reduction activities on ridge to valley principle.
Sub-Mission 7 Agro-Forestry and Social Forestry (increasing Biomass and Creating Carbon Sink) in 1.5 m ha:
Under agroforestry, 0.80 million ha would involve improved agroforestry practices on the existing lands under agroforestry and that 0.70 million ha would involve additional lands under agroforestry. The Mission will support a programme of nurseries for raising quality seedlings to meet the demands of farmers. GIM would also support putting in place a system for certification of seed and genetically improved clonal planting stock or registration of clones and nurseries in India.
Corporate Responses to Climate Change:
Between 1990 and 2004, energy consumption rose 37 per cent in India and 53 per cent in China. Besides International and National initiatives to curtail vagaries of climate change, the following are the corporate responses which every individual of this planet can reflect in their day-to-day activities by change in life style.
i. Use of solar devices to heat water.
ii. Use of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL).
iii. Construction of green buildings which will have insulation to retain heat and opening of windows in the direction of wind to replace air-conditioning.
iv. Computers should be turned off when not in use.
v. All electrical gadgets should be turned off when not in use.
vi. Use of cars for short distances should be avoided.
vii. Air travel should be reduced if the work could be done by the use of telephone or e- mail.
viii. Switch to wind power is necessary. In India, the company “Suzlon” earned $1.5 billion in wind turbine revenue in 2006.
ix. Plastic bags should be avoided.
x. Use of paper should be cut down. The Indian habit of putting everything down on paper should be avoided. Use of e-mail and phone can save thousands of trees.
xi. Public transport system should be used as far as possible.
xii. Power-generating plants based on fossil fuel will have to modify their ways.
xiii. Switching over to biofuels- ethanol made from corn or sugarcane.
xiv. All industries have to demand clean technology. Developed countries should sell clean technology to developing countries at a cheaper rate.
Stern Review on Climate Change:
Though the greenhouse effect was described in 1824, only recently this impact is being talked and discussed both by developed and developing countries in the world. This may mainly be due to a report prepared by Sir Nicholas Stern on Economical Implications of Climate Change. The report is commonly known as ‘Stern Review.’
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a 700-page report released for the British Government on 30 October 2006 by economist Nicholas Stem, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and also chair of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) at Leeds University. The report discusses the effect of global warming on the world economy. Although not the first economic report on climate change, it is significant as the largest and most widely known and discussed report of its kind.
According to the Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, now and forever. A wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20 per cent of GDP or more (Fig. 38.1).
The Review proposes that one percent of global GDP per annum is required to be invested in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. In June 2008, Stem increased the estimate for the annual cost of achieving stabilization between 500 and 550 ppm CO2e to 2 per cent of global GDP to account for faster than expected climate change.
Executive Summary of the Stern Review:
1. The benefits of strong and early action on climate change outweigh the costs.
2. The scientific evidence points to increasing risks of serious, irreversible impacts from climate change associated with business-as-usual (BAU) paths for emissions.
3. Climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world: access to water, food production, health and use of land and the environment.
4. The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed. The poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. And if and when the damages appear, it will be too late to reverse the process. Thus, we are forced to look a long way ahead.
5. Climate change may initially have small positive effects for a few developed countries, but it is likely to be very damaging for the much higher temperature increases expected by mid-to-late century.
6. Integrated assessment modelling provides a tool for estimating the total impact on the economy and estimates suggest that this is likely to be higher than previously suggested.
7. Emissions have been, and continue to be, driven by economic growth and yet stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere is feasible and consistent with continued growth.
8. Central estimates of the annual costs of achieving stabilization between 500 and 550 ppm CO2e are around 2 per cent of global GDP, if we start to take strong action now. It would already be very difficult and costly to aim to stabilise at 450 ppm CO2e. If delayed, the opportunity to stabilize at 500-550 ppm CO2e may slip away.
9. The transition to a low-carbon economy will bring challenges for competitiveness but also opportunities for growth. Policies to support the development of a range of low-carbon and high-efficiency technologies are required urgently.
10. Establishing a carbon price, through tax, trading or regulation, is an essential foundation for climate change policy. Creating a broadly similar carbon price signal around the world and using carbon finance to accelerate action in developing countries are urgent priorities for international cooperation.
11. Adaptation policy is crucial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change, but it has been under-emphasized in many countries.
12. An effective response to climate change will depend on creating the conditions for international collective action.
13. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if strong collective action starts now.
Climate Change and Its Influences on Forests:
A. Climate Change Effects on Forest Growth:
Climate influences the structure and function of forest ecosystems and plays an essential role in forest health. A changing climate may worsen many of the threats to forests such as pest outbreaks, fires, human development and drought. Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests – directly due to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate and indirectly through complex interactions in forest ecosystems.
Climate also affects the frequency and severity of many forest disturbances. In conjunction with the projected impacts of climate change, forests face impacts from land development, suppression of natural periodic forest fires and air pollution. Although it is difficult to separate the effects of these different factors, the combined impact is leading to changes in forests.
As these changes are likely to continue in the decades ahead, some of the valuable goods and services provided by forests may be compromised. Many aspects of projected climate change will likely affect forest growth and productivity. Three major factors are considered to influence the forests more viz. increase in carbon dioxide (CO2), increase in temperature, and change in precipitation (USEPA 2012).
i. Carbon Dioxide:
It is required for photosynthesis, the process by which green plants use sunlight to grow. Given sufficient water and nutrients, increases in atmospheric CO2 may enable trees to be more productive (CCSP 2008). Higher future CO2 levels could benefit forests with fertile soils. However, increased CO2 may not be as effective in promoting growth in some forest areas, where water is limited (USGCRP 2009).
ii. Temperature:
Warming temperatures could increase the length of the growing season. However, warming could also shift the geographic ranges of some tree species. Habitats of some types of trees are likely to move northward or to higher altitudes.
Other species may be at risk locally or regionally if conditions in their current geographic range are no longer suitable (CCSP 2008). For example, species that currently exist only on mountaintops in some regions may die out as the climate warms since they cannot shift to a higher altitude.
iii. Rainfall:
Climate change will likely increase the risk of drought in some areas and the risk of extreme precipitation and flooding in others. Increased temperatures would alter the timing of snowmelt, affecting the seasonal availability of water.
Although many trees are resilient to some degree of drought, increase in temperature could make future droughts more damaging than those experienced in the past In addition, drought increases forest fire risk, since dry trees and shrubs provide fuel to fires. Drought also reduces tree’s ability to produce sap, which protects them from destructive insects (USGCRP 2009).
B. Climate Change Effects on Forest Disturbances:
Climate change could alter the frequency and intensity of forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks, invasive species, forest fires and storms. These disturbances can reduce forest productivity and change the distribution of tree species. In some cases, forests can recover from a disturbance. In other cases, existing species may shift their range or die out.
In these cases, the new species of vegetation that colonize the area create a new type of forest. Disturbances can interact with one another, or with changes in temperature and precipitation, to increase risks to forests. For example, drought can weaken trees and make a forest more susceptible to forest fire or insect outbreaks. Similarly, forest fire can make a forest more vulnerable to pests.
i. Insect Outbreaks:
Insect outbreaks often defoliate, weaken and kill trees. Insects sensitive to weather conditions may migrate to conducive areas and cause huge destruction to forest areas. A lack of natural controls, such as predators, or pathogens, or inadequate defences in trees, can allow insects to spread. Climate change could contribute to an increase in the severity of future insect outbreaks. Rising temperatures may enable some insect species to develop faster and expand their ranges.
ii. Invasive Plant Species:
Invasive plant species can displace important native vegetation because the invasive species often lack natural predators. Climate change could benefit invasive plants, since they are generally more tolerant to a wider range of environmental conditions than are native plants(USGCRP 2009).
iii. Forest Fire:
In recent years, forest fires cause huge destruction to more forest areas in dry areas. Warm temperatures and drought conditions during the summer contribute to the occurrence of forest fires. Climate change is projected to increase the extent, intensity and frequency of forest areas in fire prone areas.
Warmer temperature coupled with decrease in water availability dry out woody materials in forests and increases the risk of forest fire. Fires can also contribute to climate change, since they can cause rapid, large releases of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere (CCSP 2008).
iv. Storms:
Hurricanes, ice storms and wind storms can cause damage to forests. They cause release of huge amount of carbon by these trees as they decay in a single year.
C. Climate Change Effects on Forest Productivity:
Forests respond to both short-term and longer-term variations in the environment. Although all biological activity in plants is ultimately dependent on absorbed solar radiation, it is obvious that solar radiation alone does not determine primary productivity. All plants require sunlight, carbon dioxide and water for photosynthesis.
Beyond these basic requirements, the amount of foliage, the light-use efficiency of the foliage, water availability, ambient temperature, availability of soil nutrients, the adaptations of species to extreme temperatures and efficient use of water and nutrients are finer controls of forest productivity.
The main abiotic controls of primary production (temperature, radiation and water) interact to impose complex and varying limitations on vegetation activity in different parts of the world. Physiological responses to changes in climate are highly dependent on the limiting factors of a particular site to forest growth.
For example, increasing temperature may also increase Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) of the air and thereby increase transpiration rates, resulting in adverse effects on dryer sites, unless stomata closes in response to other changes such as an increase in CO2, or if increase in nighttime temperature exceeds increase during the day.
Temperature (heat) controls the rate of plant metabolism, which in tum determines the amount of photosynthesis that can take place. Most biological metabolic activity takes place within the range of 0-50°C. There is little activity above or below this range.
The optimal temperatures for productivity coincide with 15-25°C which is the optimal range for photosynthesis and lethal levels are in between 44-52°C. In dry regions, there is a linear increase in NPP with increased water availability. With reference to aboveground biomass, low water availability in dry areas decreases productivity.
A large part of the recent increase in temperature records reflects a rise in minimum temperatures, whereas maximum temperatures may remain stable or actually decrease, especially during the summer season. Hence, systems limited by maximum temperature may not have shown any corresponding changes in productivity. Tropical forest regions show temperature increases averaging 0.26 ± 0.05°C since the mid-1970s.
Overall precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 ± 0.8 per cent per decade since 1960. This pan-tropical decreasing trend in land surface measurements of rainfall, however, is primarily driven by a strong and significant decline in rainfall in the northern African tropics (3-4 per cent per decade). Rainfall only declined marginally in tropical Asia and showed no significant trend in Amazonia.
A review by Boisvenue and Running (2006) has reported positive, negative or no trend in tree growth or forest productivity for different time periods and geographic areas after analyzing many research papers reporting forest production levels with reference to climate change (Table 38.2). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have concluded that forests are highly sensitive to modern climate change.
Although the details of expected change in forests on a regional scale are unclear, the scenarios of general circulation models (GCMs) predict major shifts in the area occupied by forest biomes. For example, globally, the area occupied by tropical and temperate forests is projected to expand by up to 20 per cent, whereas boreal forests may decline by 50 per cent, if other causes of change are ignored. Moreover, the rate of climate change over the next century may be faster than most historic changes, suggesting that adjustments forests have made to changes in the past may be more difficult today.
Noss (2001) suggests the following land-use and management practices likely to maintain forest biodiversity and ecological functions during climate change:
(1) Representing forest types across environmental gradients in reserves,
(2) Protecting climatic refugia at multiple scales,
(3) Protecting primary forests,
(4) Avoiding fragmentation and providing connectivity, especially parallel to climatic gradients,
(5) Providing buffer zones for adjustment of reserve boundaries,
(6) Practicing low-intensity forestry and preventing conversion of natural forests to plantations,
(7) Maintaining natural fire regimes, and
(8) Maintaining diverse gene pools and Identifying and protecting functional groups and keystone species.
Global Initiatives on Climate Change:
The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 for the purpose of controlling GHGs in the atmosphere and to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change. IPCC is the leading body for the assessment of climate change, established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
It is a scientific body which reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. Since 1988, the IPCC has produced four comprehensive Assessment Reports. The first assessment report was published during 1990, the Second Assessment Report during 1995 and the Third Assessment Report during 2000. The last Assessment Report (AR4) was released in November 2007.
United Nations Organization also created a global forum called “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)” during Rio Earth Summit in 1992 to tackle the problems of climate change. The ultimate objective of the Convention was to stabilize GHGs concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.
Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol placed a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
As a part of solution to this problem of increasing levels of CO2 and other GHGs in the atmosphere, Kyoto Protocol was evolved in the COP 3 meeting held in Japan during 1997 by UNFCCC. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in 2001 and are called the “Marrakesh Accords.”
The most important aspect of the Kyoto Protocol is its legally binding commitments for 39 developed countries to reduce their Green House Gas (GHG) emissions by an average of 5.2 per cent relative to 1990 levels. These emission reductions must be achieved by 2008-2012: the so called ‘first commitment period’. The developed countries with emission reduction targets are called the Annex 1 countries, whereas those without targets are the non-Annex 1 countries.
The Kyoto Protocol allows developed countries to achieve their targets in different ways through ‘Flexibility Mechanisms’.
Three mechanisms were suggested in this protocol viz.:
(1) Emissions Trading (trading of emission allowances between developed nations);
(2) Joint Implementation (transferring emission allowances between developed nations, linked to specific emission reduction projects) and
(3) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
CDM is the only Flexibility Mechanism that involves developing countries. It allows developed nations to achieve part of their reduction obligations through projects in developing countries that reduce emissions or fix/sequester CO2 from the atmosphere. Under the CDM, mitigation and adaptation are the two major solutions for control of GHGs in atmosphere. At present, major activities in CDM are biogas plants, solar photovoltaic, solar water heating, wind power, small hydro power and biomass power.
With reference to forestry sector in CDM, a decision was made in the COP-7 of UNFCC in Bonn (Germany) in July 2001 to include “Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R)” as an effective way to reduce atmospheric carbon by building up terrestrial carbon stocks and to produce Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012).
A UN climate change conference in Durban concluded during December 2011 after negotiators from more than 190 countries agreed to consider a new document that would carry “legal force” and apply to both the industrialized countries and large emitters among emerging economies, like India and China.
This Durban conference agreed to extend the Kyoto Protocol for a second period from January 2013 to December 2017 and decided that the new pact would be implemented from 2020 onwards. The conference delegates agreed to raise “the level of ambition” to work towards emissions management that would keep the average rise in global temperatures below 2° C in a bid to reduce the risk of catastrophic impacts of global warming and climate change caused by the greenhouse gas emission.
Reduction of Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD):
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the cutting down of forests is now contributing close to 20 per cent of the overall greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere. In this context, the UNFCCC agenda item on “Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries and approaches to stimulate action” was first introduced at the Conference of the Parties (COP11) in December 2005.
In response to the COP13 decision in Bali, requests from countries and encouragement from donors, FAO, UNDP and UNEP have developed a collaborative REDD programme. “REDD+” goes beyond deforestation and forest degradation and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
It is predicted that financial flows for greenhouse gas emission reductions from REDD+ could reach up to US$30 billion a year. This significant North-South flow of funds could reward a meaningful reduction of carbon emissions and could also support new, pro-poor development, help conserve biodiversity and secure vital ecosystem services.