After reading this article you will learn about the theory of demographic transition.
In 1945, Frank W. Notestein presented the theory of demographic transition in an almost mature form, with explanations for the changes in fertility. In that sense, he may be credited with expounding the theory of demographic transition.
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Notestein pointed out that the rapid growth of population during the past three centuries was mainly due to the decline in the death rate, resulting from the process of modernisation, which involved rising standards of living, rising incomes, and advances in sanitation and in medical knowledge. Fertility also registered a decline, though this response to modernisation was not as spectacular.
Notestein characterised three types of population according to their stage of demographic evolution:
1. Populations in the stage of “incipient decline”, where fertility and fallen below the replacement level on those approaching this stage (e.g. populations of Europe, the United States, Australia and New Zealand).
2. Populations in the stage of “Transitional growth”, where birth and death rates are still high and growth is rapid, but the decline of the birth rate is well established (e.g. populations of the erstwhile Soviet Union, Japan and some countries in Latin America).
3. Populations in the stage of ‘high growth potential’, where mortality is high and variable and is the chief determinant of growth, while fertility is high and thus far has shown no evidence of a downward trend. In these populations, rapid growth is to be expected just as soon as technical developments make possible a decline in mortality (e.g. populations in most countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America).
The process of demographic transition in the course of economic development, as experienced today industrialised countries, may be briefly explained as follows: “All nations in the modern era, which have moved from a traditional, agrarian based economic system to a largely industrial, urbanized base, have also moved from a condition of high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility.”
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Ansley J. Coale and Edger M. Moover have studied the changes in the birth and death rates typically associated with economic development. Their explanation is as follows: The agrarian peasant economy is characterised by high death and birth rates.
The death rates usually fluctuate in response to the variation in harvests and incidence of epidemics. They are high because of poor diet, primitive conditions of sanitation and lack of preventive and curative medical and public health programmes.
The birth rates in such economies are high and are a functional response to high mortality. The ideals of profile fertility are, therefore, ingrained in the social systems, customs and beliefs of such societies. These ideals are reinforced by the economic advantage of having a large number of children.
As the agrarian economy starts undergoing changes, it becomes interdependent on other economies, has high levels of production, and becomes highly industrialised, market-oriented and urbanized.
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When this happens, death rates register striking reductions a consequence of better and regular supply of food as well as improved medical knowledge and care. At a somewhat later stage, birth rates also begin to fall.
The acceptance of the ideal of a small family size comes about initially in urban groups at the higher end of the socio-economic scale, and then spreads to small cities, lower income groups and eventually to rural areas.
The decline in the birth rate usually occurs after a substantial time lag, as compared to the decline in the death rate. This delayed response of the birth rate to economic change comes about because any decline in fertility results only when changes occur in long-standing pronatalist attitudes and customs prevalent in the society. The birth and death rates pursue a somewhat parallel downward course though, of course, the decline in birth rate lags behind.
Finally, as further reductions in the death rate become unreasoningly difficult to achieve, the birth rate again approaches the level of the death rate, and population grows only at a very slow rate. During this stage, death rates are relatively low and un-fluctuating, while birth rates may fluctuate from year to year for they are mainly dependent on voluntary decisions of individual couples.
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Criticisms of the Demographic Transition Theory (Small):
The theory of demographic transition is widely accepted as a useful aid in describing demographic history. Its contribution is, however, considered to be of limited value.
This theory is based on the actual experience of the changes in the vital rates in Western countries during the various stages of their industrial and economic development. The critics of this theory point out that the experiences of the various European countries were not uniform, in the sense that the sequences of the stages as described in the statement of the theory were not the same.
Recent studies reveal that in Spain and in some countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, fertility decline occurred even when mortality was very high. In some countries like the United States, the growth rate in the post-transition stage was probably higher than in stage II and stage III of the demographic transition. Notestein’s claim that fertility declined initially in urban areas is found to be untrue for some countries.
For instance, countries with predominantly rural populations, such as France, Sweden, Finland, Bulgaria did experience decline in birth rates to the same extent as did some highly urbanised countries, such as England and Wales. Such exceptions suggest that the theory of demographic transition is only a broad generalisation, which does not encompass the experience of even all the Western countries.
Another criticism of this theory arises out of the fact that it does not provide a theoretical explanation of an important force, fertility, which brought about the demographic transition. Though it is a fact that fertility did decline in all the Western countries, the conditions under which it declined were diverse.
Demographers have recently arrived at the conclusion that the decline in fertility in Europe is a very complex phenomenon which has not yet been fully understood. David Glass, the British demographer, despairingly points out that even the British people do not have an adequate knowledge of their own demographic transition.
It has, moreover, been asserted that the theory of demographic transition cannot really be called a theory, for it does not fulfill an important criterion of any theory, i.e., to extract fundamental processes from a phenomenon and identify crucial variables.
This theory does not provide fundamental explanations of fertility decline, nor does it identify the crucial variables involved in the process of the fertility decline. Therefore, it does not have any predictive value.
In all fairness, it must be mentioned that Notestein, who propounded this theory, was aware of its limitations. Nonetheless, he was of the opinion that the principle drawn from the European experience would be applicable to other parts of the world.
Rapidly increasing population is an obstacle in the path of development programmes of the developing countries, which are today making concentrated efforts to eliminate poverty and to raise standards of living for the masses by launching large – scale plans for economic development, industrialisation and modernisation. According to the theory of demographic transition, the reduction in the birth rate is a by product of industrialisation and modernisation.
In the face of a very rapidly increasing population, however, it is not possible to wait for industrialisation and modernisation to bring about the required reduction in fertility. Many developing countries have, therefore, adopted family planning programmes directly geared to influence fertility negatively.
In such a situation, it is difficult to maintain with any degree of confidence that the theory of demographic transition is also applicable to developing countries and that what happened in the West, in respect of population growth would be duplicated in developing countries.
Thus, in the strictest sense of the term, theory of demographic transition cannot really be considered as a theory, though it does provide a satisfactory framework and means for wider empirical generalisations.